How far is the world from the next financial crisis?
Every day we read the world's top institutional research and distill it into one number anyone can understand. Making global risk legible — so your household stays steady.
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Risk Factor RankingsFactor score = 25-year data percentile × weight + institutional-view score
Institutional Probability BoardReal published figures, shown as-is · Definitions differ and are not directly comparable
| Institution | Figure | Definition | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 30% | US recession probability, next 12 months | 2026-03 |
| J.P. Morgan Research | 35% | US & global recession probability, 2026 | 2025-11 |
| JPM Asset Mgmt (Bob Michele) | 10%+10% | Recession 10% + crisis 10% (scenario odds) | 2026-06 |
| WSJ Economist Survey | 25% | US recession, next 12 months (mean; range 1%–80%) | 2026-07 |
| Bankrate Survey | 34% | US recession, next 12 months | 2026 |
| Bloomberg Economics Model | 38% | US recession tracker (rolling) | rolling |
| Moody's | ~42% | US recession risk, 2026 | 2026 |
| Polymarket (prediction market) | 30% | Market-implied 2026 US recession | 2026-04 |
Two reminders: ① These figures use different definitions — they cannot be added or directly compared; we blend them only through our proprietary factor-attribution algorithm, for reference only. ② They all concern a "US recession", not a "global financial crisis".
Key ReadingsPercentiles show each indicator's position in its history since 2000 (higher = riskier)
| Indicator | Current | Risk percentile | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | -0.79 | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 |
| Chicago Fed Financial Conditions | -0.56 | 33.2% | 2026-09-04 |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.96 | 90.8% | 2026-09-11 |
| 10-Year Term Premium (NY Fed) | 0.89 | 77.6% | 2026-09-04 |
| WTI Crude Oil ($) | 97.26 | 89.0% | 2026-09-09 |
| 5y5y Inflation Expectations | 2.34 | 57.9% | 2026-09-14 |
| US CPI YoY (%) | 3.35 | 77.4% | 2026-08-01 |
| Yield Curve 10Y–3M | 0.86 | 62.8% | 2026-09-14 |
| Broad US Dollar Index | 118.2 | 77.6% | 2026-09-11 |
| Buffett Indicator (proxy, % GDP) | 255.7 | 99.5% | 2026-04-01 |
| OFR Funding Stress | -0.18 | 43.8% | 2026-09-11 |
| OFR Volatility Stress | -0.28 | 54.8% | 2026-09-11 |
| OFR Emerging Markets Stress | -0.55 | 12.2% | 2026-09-11 |
| OFR Financial Stress Index | -2.46 | 29.0% | 2026-09-11 |
| Shiller CAPE | 40.90 | 98.8% | 2026-09-14 |
| US Credit-to-GDP Gap (BIS, pp) | -11.32 | 24.3% | 2026-01-01 |
| Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) | 117.9 | 70.8% | 2026-08-01 |
| Berkshire Cash Share (% of assets) | 28.90 | 93.0% | 2026-06-30 |
Historical Crisis ReferenceHard-data layer
| Date | Event | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-10 | Global inflation bear-market low | 70.7 |
| 2000-03 | Dot-com bubble peak | 69.9 |
| 2026-09 | ▶ Today | 68.5 |
| 2025-04 | Tariff & geopolitical turbulence | 67.3 |
| 2023-03 | Silicon Valley Bank crisis | 65.3 |
| 2007-10 | Eve of the GFC (US equity peak) | 63.0 |
| 2020-03 | COVID crash low | 48.6 |
| 2011-09 | Euro debt crisis + US downgrade | 46.2 |
| 2008-12 | Depths of the GFC | 44.3 |
How to read this table: it measures how thick the storm clouds are (how much risk has accumulated). Bubble peaks read high, while the depths of a crisis read low — by late 2008, rates had been cut to zero and oil and valuations had collapsed, so the "risk build-up" indicators naturally fell back.
This Week in Plain Words
This week's global risk temperature: 68.7°, Red · High Pressure. Markets look calm on the surface (stress gauges near historic lows), but valuations, debt and oil are all running hot.
The hottest factor is The AI Tightrope: US equity valuations have reached the 98.8th percentile since 1881 — the second-highest in history, behind only 1999 — while leading institutions warn that earnings haven't caught up. The good news: credit hasn't ballooned alongside (US credit gap −11pp), and history's worst crises struck when valuations and borrowing ran wild together.
What is the smartest money doing? Warren Buffett is sitting on $365.5 billion in cash (nearly 30% of Berkshire's assets — a historic high). He isn't predicting a crash; he's waiting for bargains. The version anyone can copy: top up an emergency fund covering 3–6 months of expenses, and don't add leverage in hot weather.
Honest Disclosure
Humanity's track record at predicting crises is poor. An IMF study (WP/18/39) covering 153 recessions across 63 countries from 1992–2014 found that only 5 were foreseen by consensus forecasts a year in advance — a miss rate of about 97%. Therefore:
- This index is a risk-organizing tool, not a crystal ball. The reading is a "risk temperature", not the probability of any event.
- The most robust finding in the academic literature (Greenwood et al., Journal of Finance 2022): when credit and asset prices are both running hot — the "red zone" — the three-year crisis probability rises from about 7% to about 40%. A five-fold increase; yet it also means about 60% of red-zone episodes see no crisis within three years.
- Our methodology is fully public and reproducible; every number has a source.
Citing This Index
This index is an open data product. Media, creators and researchers are welcome to cite its readings and charts free of charge, under two conditions:
① Attribute the source: "Global Crisis Index" with globalcrisisindex.co.uk. ② Do not alter figures or bands, and do not present the reading as a "crash probability" or any investment signal.
For commercial use (in-app or terminal embedding, etc.), please obtain authorization first: hello@globalcrisisindex.co.uk.